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Study on Scenario Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pathways

Absrtact
The reality of the scientifically proven climate emergency led to the adoption of the Glasgow Climate Pact during the 2021 UN COP27 climate conference in Glasgow, UK. All parties have agreed to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Therefore, net-zero greenhouse gas emissions must be achieved by 2050, and carbon dioxide emissions be reduced by 45% in 2030 relative to 2010 levels. Following this global consensus, countries will propose their net-zero pathways, while UNFCCC will carry out global stocktake to review the overall contribution of the 2030 mid-term goals and sectoral milestones. Taiwan's net-zero pathway has already planned for strategies including energy transition, green growth, and climate legislation. The Taiwan 2050 net-zero pathway covers four strategies of "energy transition", "industry transition", "lifestyle transition", and "social transition", as well as two foundations of "technology research and development" and "climate legislation" that promote transition. The Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) is one of the main modeling tools used by the UNFCCC for assessing net-zero mitigations. This project is based on the construction of the technical database in LEAP model, considers current strategies, international innovations and carbon reduction trends, evaluates viable short and long-term mitigation goals and emission gaps of Taiwan’s 2050 net-zero pathway, ultimately review and propose plausible transition strategies through international cooperation dialogues. The main results and outcomes of this project include: 1. Key findings from investigating global stocktake on mitigation assessment and key strategies of net-zero transition, carry out analysis on Taiwan's social and economic projection in the future; 2. Provision of Evaluating mid-term goals under the Taiwan 2050 net-zero pathway and mitigation contributions of sectoral milestones; 3. Results in Evaluating the future potential of key strategies such as negative emission technologies and natural carbon sinks, as well as the development of relevant infrastructure.
Keyword
2050 Net Zero Emission, GHG Reduction, Nationally Determined Contributions
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